Silicon Curve Research

U.S. Electricity Research Reports Grid Capacity and AI Data Center Demand

Our monthly deep-dive reports built on U.S. federal data: how AI data center construction is reshaping power demand, what it’s doing to residential, commercial and industrial rates, and where generation and capacity are running tight.

Each report is a long-form analysis built from a fixed data pipeline, with published calculations and charts rendered directly from the underlying observations. Coverage to date spans national generation and capacity, the PJM Mid-Atlantic market, Virginia and Texas rate structures, and the cost comparison between nuclear and solar as firm power for data centers.

Between reports we publish shorter commentary briefs: topics taken from our findings and viewed from a different angle. The briefs carry the argument. The reports carry the evidence, every figure traced to a named federal series, with the methodology, source tables and charts behind it.

Monthly New Report Cadence
EIA + FRED Federal Data Sources
Free Executive Summaries
$24/mo Membership, Every Report

Published Electricity Research Reports

Grid Infrastructure Series
August 2026

The Electricity Rate Gap by State: 51 Jurisdictions Ranked

The electricity rate gap by state runs from a 22.3% residential-to-industrial premium in Alaska to 184.5% in New York, on trailing 12-month average prices through June 2026.

184.5%Widest residential/industrial spread
22.3%Narrowest residential/industrial spread
84.7%Median state spread

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Grid Infrastructure Series
July 2026

Solar vs Nuclear: Firm Power for the AI Grid

U.S. nuclear generation totaled 786.0 TWh over the 12 months through April 2026 while solar totaled 313.1 TWh, framing two opposite ends of the firmness spectrum for AI data center power.

786.0 TWhNuclear 12-month total
+16.1%Solar YoY generation
313.1 TWhSolar 12-month total

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Grid Infrastructure Series
June 2026

Mid-Atlantic Electricity Bills: +19.4% Ohio Rate Surge

Ohio residential electricity prices reached 19.49 cents/kWh in April 2026, a +19.4% year-over-year increase and the steepest household rate rise across the PJM mid-Atlantic core.

+19.4%Ohio residential price YoY
+16.8%New Jersey residential price YoY
+13.7%Virginia residential price YoY

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Grid Infrastructure Series
May 2026

Commercial Electricity Load Growth: Virginia and Texas Customer Classes Compared

Commercial electricity load growth is reshaping the customer-class mix in both Virginia and Texas: commercial sales rose 5.5% in Virginia and 5.8% in Texas on a trailing-annual basis through March 2026, while residential and industrial classes were flat or declining.

84.5 TWhVA Commercial Sales, 12mo
+5.5%VA Commercial Rolling-Annual Growth
+5.8%TX Commercial Rolling-Annual Growth

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Grid Infrastructure Series
April 2026

PJM Generation Growth: Four States Diverge

New Jersey and Maryland added output at more than 5% over the 12 months through February 2026, Virginia at 3.2%, and Pennsylvania, more than half the core's power, at just 0.3%, against a 1.9% national rate.

452.8 TWhPJM core 12-month output
+5.5%New Jersey growth
+0.3%Pennsylvania growth

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Grid Economics Series
March 2026

The Electricity Rate-Class Spread: What Households, Businesses and Data Centers Pay

In December 2025, Texas residential electricity ran 137.9% above the Texas industrial rate, the widest rate-class spread of the three geographies, while Virginia's residential-to-industrial gap was 63.3%.

137.9%Texas residential over industrial
63.3%Virginia residential over industrial
9.2%Virginia commercial over industrial

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Grid Infrastructure Series
February 2026

Grid Capacity for AI: U.S. Power Supply Under Pressure

U.S. net electricity generation totaled 4,429.5 TWh over the 12 months through December 2025, with total generation up 5.8% year-over-year in the latest month.

4,429.5 TWhU.S. 12-month generation
+5.8%Total generation YoY (Dec)
8.53¢/kWhIndustrial price (Dec)

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Grid Infrastructure Series
January 2026

Stargate Project Grid Impact: Reading the AI Buildout in Federal Energy Data

U.S. net electricity generation reached 446.3 TWh in July 2025, the highest single month in the dataset window, as Virginia and Texas — the two states most tied to the AI compute buildout — posted 8.5% and 5.0% year-over-year generation growth.

4,429.5 TWhU.S. 12-month generation
+8.5%Virginia YoY generation
+41.5%Henry Hub YoY

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