PJM Generation Growth: Four States Diverge
Generation growth across PJM's four biggest states splits three ways: New Jersey and Maryland added output at more than 5% over the 12 months through February 2026, Virginia at 3.2%, and Pennsylvania, which produces more than half the region's power, at 0.3%. The national rate was 1.9%.
On a rolling 12-month basis through February 2026, PJM generation growth diverged sharply across the four-state mid-Atlantic core: New Jersey (+5.5%) and Maryland (+5.4%) led, Virginia grew moderately (+3.2%), and Pennsylvania was nearly flat (+0.3%) despite producing more than half the core's output. This report's thesis is narrow and data-bound: the PJM core is not a single growth story but four distinct output trajectories, and three of the four states meaningfully outpaced the 1.9% national rolling rate while Pennsylvania grew far slower. State-level EIA generation measures electricity produced inside a state's borders, not consumption, capacity, or supply adequacy; because PJM is a single wholesale market in which power crosses state lines, no state's figure establishes whether it meets its own load.
12 months through Feb 2026
rolling 12-month
more than half the core's output
national benchmark
The four-state PJM core generated 452.8 TWh over the 12 months through February 2026, dominated by Pennsylvania at 246.0 TWh. On a rolling 12-month basis, New Jersey (+5.5%) and Maryland (+5.4%) grew fastest, Virginia grew moderately (+3.2%), and Pennsylvania was nearly flat (+0.3%). Three of the four rolling growth rates (New Jersey +5.5%, Maryland +5.4%, Virginia +3.2%) sat above the national rolling rate of 1.9%, while Pennsylvania at +0.3% grew far slower despite being more than half the core's output. The single-month February comparison shows even wider dispersion: two states near +18%, two below +4%. These are output volumes and their growth rates. They do not measure reserve margins, capacity additions, or import dependence, none of which appear in this data.
- MAGNITUDE: The four-state PJM core recorded 452.8 TWh of net generation over the 12 months through February 2026, with Pennsylvania alone at 246.0 TWh, more than half the core total.
- DIRECTIONAL CHANGE: New Jersey generation rose 18.3% year-over-year in February 2026 (+0.8 TWh) and Maryland rose 18.8% (+0.5 TWh), against a Pennsylvania change of just +0.2%.
- STRUCTURAL SIGNAL: On a rolling 12-month basis, three of four PJM states (New Jersey +5.5%, Maryland +5.4%, Virginia +3.2%) grew faster than the U.S. total of 1.9%, while Pennsylvania at +0.3% grew far slower despite being more than half the core's output.
Generation figures are monthly EIA-923 net generation, all sectors and all fuels, summed to 12-month totals where noted. Henry Hub natural gas (FRED MHHNGSP) is included as a fuel-cost control, not as a driver of any state's output.
Virginia hosts the country's largest concentration of data centers; that is background context, not something this data shows. No state's generation growth is attributed to data center load in this report.
Henry Hub natural gas recorded a one-month spike to $7.72/MMBtu in January 2026, versus a surrounding median near $3.31/MMBtu, reverting to $3.62/MMBtu in February 2026. This is verified data, not an error. Nothing in this dataset explains its cause, and no state's generation movement is attributed to it.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Executive SummaryFree
- The PJM Core and the National Benchmark🔒
- State Trajectories Side by Side🔒
- Pennsylvania: The Flat Anchor🔒
- New Jersey and Maryland: The Fast Movers🔒
- Virginia: Moderate and Steady🔒
- The Fuel-Cost Control: Henry Hub🔒
- The Bottom Line🔒
- Data Appendix🔒
- Endnotes🔒
- U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / EIA
The full report compares monthly net generation for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia against the U.S. national benchmark over the 12 months through February 2026, with Henry Hub natural gas as a fuel-cost control. It breaks down each state's rolling and single-month growth, the scale gap in absolute output, and the divergence between percentage growth and absolute volume across the PJM core.
Read the Full Report ($49 value)
Every chart, table and appendix, unlocked instantly and yours for the life of the report.
No credit card or account required.
We'll also send you our newsletter. Unsubscribe at any time.
Or Buy It Outright
Buy This Report, $49One report, yours permanently. The free copy is one per reader.