Commercial Electricity Load Growth: Virginia and Texas Customer Classes Compared
Commercial electricity load growth is reshaping the customer-class mix in both Virginia and Texas: commercial sales rose 5.5% in Virginia and 5.8% in Texas on a trailing-annual basis through March 2026, while residential and industrial classes were flat or declining.
Commercial electricity load growth is the clearest signal in the retail sales data for both Virginia and Texas through March 2026, and it is doing different work in each state. On a rolling-annual basis, comparing the 12 months through March 2026 against the prior 12 months, Virginia commercial sales rose 5.5% and Texas commercial sales rose 5.8%; residential and industrial classes in both states were flat or in decline over the same window.
The thesis of this report: in both states the commercial class is the sole engine of retail load growth, but where Virginia's commercial expansion is lifting a system whose other classes are broadly stable, Texas's commercial gain is offsetting an outright decline in its much larger industrial base. The contrast is one of composition and what the growth offsets, not of which state grows faster.
12mo through Mar 2026 vs prior 12mo
12mo through Mar 2026 vs prior 12mo
12mo through Mar 2026 vs prior 12mo
Commercial is the only retail class growing in either state. In Virginia it lifts an otherwise stable system; in Texas it partly offsets a shrinking industrial base. The commercial price data does not support reading Virginia's volume growth as a pricing artifact.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Executive SummaryFree
- The Two Systems at a Glance🔒
- Virginia: Commercial Growth Against a Stable Base🔒
- Texas: Commercial Growth Offsetting Industrial Decline🔒
- Is Virginia's Commercial Growth a Price Effect?🔒
- The Bottom Line🔒
- Data Appendix🔒
- Endnotes🔒
- U.S. Energy Information Administration
This report compares electricity sales across the three EIA retail customer classes, residential, commercial and industrial, in Virginia and Texas over the 12 months through March 2026. It measures each class on a rolling-annual basis, reports each class's share of state retail sales, and uses the two commercial price series to test whether commercial volume growth reflects demand or price.
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